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Addendum:
My friend and colleague Michelle Paradis raised the questions which follow with blue emphasis, and I am including them along with my responses here because (among other things) they illustrate the way in which this particular analytic mapping could combine with others illustrating Islamist dependence on the honor-shame system, etc.
I needed TWO glasses of cool fresh
water after reading the speculative analysis above. Fascinating and ...
SCARY. I'm hoping it conveys
affect as well as insight - food for both
heart and mind. That's important to me, I think we need a genre that
is both process-oriented and touches on beliefs and feelings as well as
facts and figures.
In my own mind, I try to compare it with say, a white paper on a
similar subject, a New Yorker or Atlantic anecdotal piece, and a
mathematical model of the situation - I'm thinking of those three as the
genres this form of analysis is, so to speak, mostly in competition with
(they actually each serve a purpose, to be sure, but the weaknesses are
critical IMO):
For
good measure, why don't I throw in a couple more genres: scenario
planning, and scenario role playing by senior government types:
Those
are all established formats, and I've actually tried my hand one way or
another at most of them - that's the landscape into which I'm placing my
analytic method, because it fills a gap that I've felt myself.
*
if we accept this analysis as a
possible scenario, how would we use the same tool to provide possible
solutions?? Well, the choice of beads would
actually be significantly different depending on what kind of solution I
was introducing, and to what audience. I'm jotting down some notes
here, but they'll probably be a bit chaotic...
This particular board suggests that tempo is an issue, and the first
thing I'd do if I was working in counter-terrorism would be to add a
question or two about al-Hawali to standard interrogations, trying to see
if the connection with 2012 was substantiated. If it was, that's an
important strategic insight -- because the really "big bang" effects are
likely to come later in the sequence.
I'd use similar materials quoting the Hamas charter on the Gharqad Tree
if I was trying to get people to grasp the potential al-Qaida-Palestinian
alignment on apocalyptic grounds:
 If I was talking to people who needed to understand
the religious drivers at work, I'd expand on the Islamic aspect, and bring
in beads that paralleled, say, Taliban shariah with Christien
Reconstructionist ideas about the application of Old Testament law to
today's Americas:
One
of the things that I like about this analytic approach is that it's
polyphonic: it allows a number of voices to be suspended together - and I
think that suits it particularly to tasks like education, negotiation,
conflict resolution and therapy where listening and hearing
are at a premium.
There are some distances that can't be bridged by showing parallels
between an "alien" culture and aspects of one's own contemporary or
historical culture, but to the extent that such parallels
can serve a bridging function, I'd use close cross-cultural
parallels to explore the mind and heart of the "other" (in education), and
to give insight (in negotiation and conflict resolution). Ideally,
seeing that something one complains of in the other is also a feature of
one's own approach can lead to a sort of "dropping of charges" like the
cancelling out of identical terms on both sides of an equation - but here
we're getting closer even to therapy than to conflict resolution
perhaps. In an educational setting, for instance, I might focus on
the two abomination beads, and hope that people on each
"side" would be able to better understand the other via sympathy with
their concerns.
In fleshing out the religious dimension for policy-related purposes, I
might also stress how this board shows possible integration between
cutting-edge warfare (asymmetrical, networked) and the religious driver -
but I'd no doubt add other OBL beads about shame and honor, like this one:
 Indeed, from the diplomatic angle, I'd view all
communications issues from jihadist sources through the lens of shame /
honor, but that's another bead-game which inter-links with this one, for
which I already have a couple of dozen beads ready. I'd look for
solutions which "saved Islamic face" wherever possible, remembering the
classic technique once used by Paul Linebarger (Cordwainer Smith):
While in Korea, Linebarger masterminded the surrender of
thousands of Chinese troops who considered it shameful to give up their
arms. He drafted leaflets explaining how the soldiers could surrender by
shouting the Chinese words for 'love,' 'duty,' 'humanity,' and
'virtue'--words that happened, when pronounced in that order, to sound
like 'I surrender' in English. He considered this act to be the single
most worthwhile thing he had done in his life."
http://www.cordwainer-smith.com/otherbooks.htm Hey, there's a bead!
*
I guess what I'm saying is that the problems we're looking at are
complicated in a way that means many actors (voices) and many tensions
(links, oppositions, overlapping concerns) are a work in them -- and
consequently there will be many ways of selecting the crucial nodes of a
given problem, and many styles and approaches to solving it.
I'm really keen to see what use different people, with different needs
and different knowledges, will make of this process, both solo and in
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